TFM Vaccine Tracker

The following chart is multi-paged and interactive; hover for more detailed info and click in certain areas to filter. See ‘How to Use’ section.

Chart Information and Usage

Page 1: Shows each countries performance in both the total number of vaccinations given as a proportion of their population and also shows how much of their population has been fully vaccinated/inoculated, i.e. the number of people that have received two shots of the same vaccine.

Both of these metrics are important to assess the total progress of each country towards reaching widespread inoculation/herd immunity, however the percentage that is fully inoculated is the ultimate goal and measure of any country’s performance.

Page 2: Shows how well each country is performing vaccinations on a daily basis.

This data has been normalised on a per million basis, which put simply is the total number of vaccines given on a single day divided by the population. For example, if Australia gave 100,000 vaccines in a single day that would appear on the graph as ~4,000 daily vaccinations per million, as there are around 25 million Australians and 100,000 / 25 = 4,000. This per million basis allows us to compare performance between countries without worrying about the large differences in populations.

As can be seen in the graph this gives preference to small countries like Gibraltar and Seychelles, but when comparing similar countries — in terms of culture and size — we can ascertain Australia’s likely performance. Further, the graph marks a range between the two black lines, which is where Australia needs to be by March in order to reach herd immunity before the end of the year.

Page 3: This page combines the data from the prior pages to give live estimates for when each country is likely to reach 70% inoculation or herd immunity. An important metric, the date of which describes when international travel to and from those countries is likely to begin.

VACCINE NEWS UPDATES

• The Australian Government has purchased the following quantities of each vaccines: 10m doses from Pfizer, 53.8m from AstraZeneca (w/onshore manufacturing), and 51m does from Novavac. However, as of writing, the ever slow TGA has yet to approve any of these.

• The rollout will progress firstly from front-line workers, then to the elderly and highly vulnerable, then will go down the spectrum of ages for the rest of the population. Note: it is still unclear if/when children will be vaccinated.

• In Israel, there has been less than expected reduction in infection transmission in inoculated groups with only one shot of the vaccine. However it is likely to change once they receive two shots, and they are still on track to start the reduction in deaths in early March; even with lockdown ending in late January. Link from the Economist.

We at TFM are closely watching the roll out of the various COVID-19 vaccines both at home and abroad. It must be remembered that Australia and our friends over the ditch have fared very well through this pandemic relative to the rest of the world. This has put us in a very lucky position wherein the vaccine is not the only solution to the current outbreaks that we are having within our borders. This story is very different across the world, wherein states are rushing to obtain and vaccinate their populations as quickly as possible to regain control.

To return to normalcy with international travel and without QR-codes, Australia and international destinations need to reach a level of vaccination that allows herd immunity.

Herd Immunity is the level of vaccination a group of people need to reach that reduces transmission and prevents outbreaks from occurring.  The level of the population that would be required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity varies depending on contagiousness and vaccine effectiveness, but for COVID the magic number is speculated to be 70-80%.

All COVID vaccines contracted for Australia require two shots to inoculate a single person, meaning that a total of 36-42million vaccines will need to be administered to reach herd immunity. The Australian Department of Health currently has contracts for more than enough vaccine doses, the main challenge is administering the vaccine to the population.

The Department of Health will begin roll out of the vaccine in early March 2021, with an aimed completion date of the end of the year. This implies for herd immunity (70%-80%) 40m vaccines will be administered at a rate of 148k per day.  To compare Australia’s vaccination rate with other countries, we have normalised the figure for population (25m) revealing that we will need to distribute daily 5,700 vaccines per million people.

We invite you to track the administration of the vaccine with our compiled live data per country.  Each figure is normalised for population.

In the above graph you can see there are some definite outliers, most notably Israel and Bahrain, which are very quickly and successfully rolling out their vaccines. Most countries are sitting below the required Australian mark of 5,700, with the majority sitting below 3,000 per million.

We will be watching any developments closely and will be regularly updating this page with any further research and findings. be regularly updating this page with any further research and findings.