A VIEW FROM THE TOP END – MELBOURNE CUP 2022 SPECIAL EDITION

Background:

This is our fourth year running our betting model. For the 2019 race we were able to box the trifecta for a win (120 combinations), as Vow & Declare helped us to $2,581 on our $100 wager. The last three years have unfortunately not been as profitable. Last year saw Verry Elegant lead wire to wire and beat our picks Incentivise (2nd) and Spanish Mission (3rd) for the top prize. Our tweaks this year to the model are around improved jockey and trainer data sets.

How we bet:

For those unfamiliar with our previous Melbourne Cup piece we play a boxed trifecta on six horses. We wager $120 on the 120 combinations, ultimately that gives us $1 on each combination.

Payouts for the trifecta can range wildly depending on the betting pool size and whether favourites make up the top finishers, or a roughy sneaks in. Since 2010 the Melbourne Cup trifecta has paid between $179 and $51,117. The median payout is ~$2,700.

What we model - Changes from 2021

Every year is an opportunity to improve. In adition to our usual metrics of speed, eliminating 80-1's and above (they're closer to 200-1 and not a good deal), and the age/sex/weight statistics, here are our changes:

Improved Jockey/Trainer data: Top jockey's ride top horses, and top trainers know what to look for. We upweighted these categories in 2021 with success. This year we pulled in more granular data for jockey records and trainers. Previous winners still get a boost in our model for experience, but recent form gives up and coming jockeys and trainers greater weight.

Track Conditions: Its wet in Melbourne today, so the race is likely to be a slower run. We re-ran our speed data last night to account for these changes and a softer track. Experience will be key this year both for horse and rider.

Odds Momentum: Five of our top 6 picks are "climbers" this year. The only two climbers outside of our ranks are Hoo Ya Mal and Realm of Flowers.

For the Data Nerds:

Below is the data from our model for those with a thirst for figures and keen eyes (click image to enlarge).

Results:

We were a bit disappointed that that the promotion run by a new betting app offering 100-1 on any Melbourne Cup bet closed before we could get on it. We'll have to stick to our usual that will be placed as follows. Good luck on race day and remember to drink responsibly and most of all enjoy yourselves.

$120 Boxed Trifecta:

#8 Deauville Legend
#3 Knights Order
#4 Montefilia
#19 Smokin' Romans
#6 Without A Fight
#11 Young Werther

Regards,

Gareth Jakeman
Chief Investment Officer

Kyle Schlachter, CFA
Investment Analyst

(Territory Funds Management Pty Ltd is sub advisor to Mason Stevens for the Territory Active Goals SMA’s).

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