MELBOURNE CUP 2023 SPECIAL EDITION

Background:

This is our fifth year running our betting model. For the 2019 race we were able to box the trifecta for a win (120 combinations), as Vow & Declare helped us to $2,581 on our $100 wager. The last four years have unfortunately not been as profitable. Last year saw Gold Trip surprise and beat our pick Deauville Legend (4th) for the top prize. Our tweaks this year to the model are again around improved jockey and trainer data sets.

How we bet:

For those unfamiliar with our previous Melbourne Cup piece we play a boxed trifecta on six horses. We wager $120 on the 120 combinations, ultimately that gives us $1 on each combination.

Payouts for the trifecta can range wildly depending on the betting pool size and whether favourites make up the top finishers, or a roughy sneaks in. Since 2010 the Melbourne Cup trifecta has paid between $179 and $51,117. The median payout is ~$2,700.

What we model - Changes from 2021

Every year is an opportunity to improve. In adition to our usual metrics of speed, eliminating 80-1's and above (they're closer to 200-1 and not a good deal), and the age/sex/weight statistics, here are our changes:

Improved Jockey/Trainer data: Again, top jockey's ride top horses, and top trainers know what to look for. We upweighted these categories in 2021 with success, and if we have again put more work into the Jockey / Trainer data granularity. Previous winners no longer get a boost in our model for experience, so recent form reigns.

Track Conditions: It could be a fast track or a wet track in Melbourne today. We attempt to normalise for track conditions. Weather will be a factor this year when it comes time to race.

Odds Momentum: Odds momentum has increased the fit of our model the last few years, and horses with falling odds got a boost again.

For the Data Nerds:

Below is the data from our model for those with a thirst for figures and keen eyes (click image to enlarge).

Results:

$120 Boxed Trifecta:

#1 Gold Trip
#7 Absurde
#8 Right You Are
#5 Vauban
#6 Soulcombe
#9 Vow and Declare

Regards,

Gareth Jakeman
Chief Investment Officer

Kyle Schlachter, CFA
Investment Analyst

(Territory Funds Management Pty Ltd is sub advisor to Mason Stevens for the Territory Active Goals SMA’s).

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